Purely on the law of averages, Siegelman's chances are remote. But the same odds applied in 2009. That year, the 11th Circuit did stay his mandate. Had it not, Siegelman would have been sent back to Montgomery for re-sentencing and he'd almost certainly be watching his appeal play out from a prison cell.
NOTE: On Monday (Dec. 5), the 11th Circuit web-site posted notice of a ruling made Thursday by one of its judges, James C. Hill, to Stay the Mandate. The upshot is that the process of re-sentencing Siegelman will not proceed until resolution of Siegelman's appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. That appeal, as noted above, has not been filed. It is due in early February.